It's exactly 24 hours until Nokia's big announcement. In the last couple of days various ideas popped up and were discussed around the Nokia blogs - and then on non-Nokia blogs also. But the reason, why none of us has got it right is that we have forgotten about the real Nokia. I'm talking about the Nokia before 2007.

Patching the portfolio

Nokia in 2008 has been reorganizing. Shuffling the cards, figuring out what it exactly meant by Ovi, scratching its head. Fine. It has also missed the deadline for Nokia 5800, which should have came out in June. It was also quite busy heading towards 40% market share, finding the right - sustainable - amount of models. (They still should drop about 25% of their releases per year to have a right balance.) Yes, the N-series touchscreen will come soon. But it's nothing new. It might be a real iPhone competitor (the 5800 is not), addressing the main advantage of Apple: usability. But it's just a patch for the portfolio. Yes, the highly popular N810 will have a follow-up with high-speed 3G and Linux. Just an adjustment. Yes, Nokia might finally release Aeon and have a highly popular design handset. It's just something, which should have been done in 2007.

Transforming the way we connect

The Guru is betting on services, based on the headline. I agree, this really sounds like services. So, why it shouldn't be? There are a couple of themes showing up in Nokia's job ads. "Products people fell in love with", "social address book", "the web made by hand". Each of these are worth a separate post (and they will get what they deserve ;-), yet none of them is big or innovative enough. Apple is doing the first, Yahoo, Facebook the second and there are more startups in the third area than you could count. Yet another Ovi service? Of course, Ovi is not ready. It hasn't been even started, really, so there is plenty of room for big announcements. Sync to become a social address book with presence and lifestreams, Files to become NAS for mobile phones, Music Store to become a full Media Store - none of these are small steps. Seeing that Nokia kept this announcement a secret, it could be the company buying Yahoo. Yet, it's not transforming. It might be, but two companies struggling with new Internet services does not add up to one successful company.

The smartphone war is over

It's time for a new generation of devices. Painful to say, but the iPhone is almost there to fulfill all smartphone promises. It's the perfection of the convergence between cell phones and computers - Nokia started to push a couple of years ago with N-series. Nokia and Apple will battle it out for top sales, but it's the end game. Actually, a new device could come early - 5800 should have came in June, the N96 also. Seems like Nokia is not caring about overlapping products anymore, they are just pushing out what's in their queue. (See my post about top E and N series devices today.) So, clearing the space for something bigger?

Back to the roots

iPhone competitor? Internet services? This is our wishful thinking as consumers. But look at what Nokia needs and just remember, how proud is Nokia of doing things first. If the company wants to reclaim thought leadership in an attention economy and transform the way we connect for real, it has to come up with something unique and innovative. (Why Nokia is so active in communicating its innovations this year?) It has to change the battlefield from smartphones to something else. There is only one recurring thing in Nokia ideas about the future: the wearable, morphing, modular, sensor-connected communicators. And half of that is already possible today with separate bendable screens, NFC-connected base station in your pocket and the Sensor Framework announced some time ago. I think the Nokia 888 comes in 2009.

If you are a Nokia fanboy (like half of me is), your mantra in the last 1-1,5 years was most likely this:

I want to believe in Nokia, again.

I want to believe in usability, engineering supremacy and thought leadership - the things which Nokia was famous for before. I'm ready, beam me up, Nokia!

Update: How could I forget? In a previous post I was complaining about the tasks, which Nokia should do, so they "can focus on implementing new things in 2009, like my 8 MP 3,5″ gesture controlled T-Series phone? ;-)". It's also something, which would be new, unique and innovative. Let's see tomorrow.