- when I try to follow news on twitter, I have to follow 3 search keywords (n900, maemo, n920) right now.

This means that news trends are shared between 3 keywords – lessening the chance that it shows up on trending topics, or on the radar of blogs, news sites, which live from traffic.

it breaks continuity when the next maemo device shows up. The N920 will build up its fame and fortune from almost zero – unless you can convince all sites to use “n920 (next version of n900)” in their post titles.

You need to speak about the phone and the OS separately, which is complicated and long. The “N920, which runs the Maemo, Linux-based, OS.” instead of “the iPhone”.

The ecosystem, which needs to be built on the phone for years to succeed hurts, every time Nokia comes up with a new Maemo-based phone. All the n900blogsdotcoms need to be renamed etc. unless they picked allaboutmaemo.com style URLs. We tend to say Apple has bought the hype and all news sites to write about the iPhone – but the fact is, it is just easier to follow a winning strategy in the attention ecosystem that way.

- the name is used across the world, not just a “stupid American thing”.

I rarely hear people refer to their “RIM phone”, they have a “Blackberry”. (I can vouch for Europe and Asia here.)

The numbering system was okay, when Nokia had a dozen phones coming out. Now they have 40 per year.

N-series is nice (have you heard many ppl referring to the N900 as N-series?), but Nokia has already 4 quite different target groups under N-Series: music, photo, flagship, flagship-maemo.

I can follow the numbering and I can tell you the difference between an 5800 and an 5530. But I rarely find anyone with the same obsession level as I do and we are talking about consumers, not just Nokia fanboys.

- the uniqueness of the N900 in the Nokia lineup (and in the whole market) is the Maemo community. Multitasking, open source, web browser will be replicated soon (Apple will copy and improve 2 of these in iPhone 4G and that will be the end of our Godphone.) This should be included in the name.

So, my suggestion is this:

Starting latest from N920, this lineup should be identified like this: Nokia Maemo 6. (Current one would be Nokia Maemo 5.)

Nokia, this was your automated wake up call service.

You can discuss this topic in Maemo Talk, under Could the next Maemo device please use a proper name? Please?

Here is my take on the top 10 mistakes – in no particular order -  Nokia made during 2008:

1. Releasing the N96 at all

How could releasing a new device with impressive feature list be a mistake, you say? If it’s a failship, as the N96 proved to be, actually hurting loyalty rates in the most cut-throat segment (smartphones), taking important resources from other N-Series releases, then Nokia would have been better off not releasing it.

• Why the N96 went back into the box; SloanB
• The Nokia N96: Face the task; Mobile Industry Review
• Joy and Sorrow of Using the N96; Dotsisx, Symbian-Guru

2. Ignoring Download! completely

When Apple has announced the App Store, it was easy to dismiss the “innovation”. The Download! catalog is present on about 100 million Nokia devices and there are some good findings there. I’m not particulary fond of iFart (iPhone) apps, so I don’t mind a hand-selected crop of good apps – but I also don’t understand why Nokia has not increased the number of apps available through Download! during the half-year it had as advantage. It is also a question, why Nokia has not adopted its N-Gage game system to applications.

• iPhone App Store is everything Download! should be; Symbian-Guru
• The mobile application store phenomenon; Vision Mobile
• Nokia Up! gateway to all updates for your phone

3. Waiting for Ovi to be ready

I’ve mentioned this before, but here it is again: there is no such thing as “being ready” in web services. You start with a core system (which IS Ovi Sync), gain userbase in the millions and announce the next version or next feature in 3 months to those millions. If Music, N-Gage and various services are not under the umbrella – no problem. They could be in one of the quarterly cycles.

• Ovi – behind closed doors?; Snowy, Symbian Freak
• Oh. My God! 300 million Ovi users are coming
• How to save Nokia’s Ovi from dying

4. Being half year late

During 2008 it was quite visible the Nokia is actually half-year late with everything: the N96, the 5800, Ovi Sync, N97, Comes with Music all arrived on average 6 month later than the usual product releases. N96 took 7 months delay, the Tube should have come before the iPhone in July (just check the Batman product placement), Ovi single sign-on was for September (still not working for Music or N-Gage), N97 and Comes with Music in main countries for Christmas. There is not much to say about this, except that 6 months is 2 web cycles or half of a major product cycle.

This might be changing quickly, as the N97 seems to be close to release – we might not need to wait until June 2009.

5. Incompatible Music Store, Files and Maps 3

Lets rush past supporting both Mac and Windows on the client-side, as it is indeed a matter of strategy and market share. My point here is that web services should be browser and platform independent, which nor Music Store, neither Maps 3 beta is. None of the successful web services (e.g Facebook, Google Maps, Amazon) require plug-ins in your browser to access the common functionality. You might have extra plug-ins for browsers to provide extras, but not for the main service – as the installation or incompatibility turns 50-75% of users away from the web.

• Maps 3 is an ugly fail; Symbian-Guru

6. Not innovating a new market out of thin air

Let’s be honest here: the smartphone market is being swiped out by new players like Apple, Google, RIM. Nokia might stick to its No. 1. position for the coming years, but without an extreme change in strategy, it will lose to experienced software companies. Following Nokia’s a-phone-for-every-segment strategy means that it will always lose segments to specialty players – which is fine. What’s not good however, is that Nokia for years now not opening new segments on its own, only following. After missing the clam-shell and slider craze, Nokia has also missed the touchscreen and mobile game craze. So, why not come out with something new and leave others to follow – as it happened during Nokia’s golden times?

• Innovation and maturity; Symbian Guru
• Niche vs. mass-market; Nokia Conversations
• I’m ready, beam me up, Nokia!
• Is Nokia innovating?

7. Losing focus in marketing

Reading this list of mistakes, you might have the feeling, that Nokia is doomed. It is not. Just in 2008 it came out with huge innovations and it still maintains advantages, which nobody is able to replicate – but is still going mum about it. Where are the “This is how you copy and paste” ads, the clear “all you can eat music service for one year – and you keep all after” messages, the “buying music over the air” or “synchronization without cables” demos? Nokia’s marketing has to identify its strengths and also play on the weaknesses of its competitors.

• Why isn’t this a Nokia ad?; Symbian Guru
• They couldn’t make it more confusing; Nokia Conversations

8. The concept of many Nokia voices

Nokia repeatedly prouds itself as a company of many voices, concurrent and competing ideas. Unfortunately, the side-effect of this multi-voice approach is shouting in the face of consumers. The Nokia 5800 is released without Ovi support, the N96 is not able to run many Nokia developed betas, N-Gage is an afterthought on devices and best practices (technologies) are very slow to replicate to other parts of devices or software. And lets just mention the overlapping offering of Plazes-viNe-Friend View-Maps or Files-Share-Mosh-Download! to demonstrate the noise, which so many voices generate.

9. Quality, Attention to detail or Right at First time

One very disturbing detail about Nokia in 2008 was that it is still making the mistakes of 2007. It still releases the N96 with slow firmware and borderline battery capacity, Ovi Sync with Calendar backup not working and viNe as an incomplete alpha service. There is a very strong shift in the market, as some companies demonstrate that it is possible to get first releases close to perfection. As the economic downturn makes consumers taking less risk, it turns attention to quality also.

• Don’t use the general public as guinea pigs; All About Symbian
• The funniest Nokia joke ever
• Let me v(h)ine a little bit

10. Ecosystem

I wanted to say, that Nokia is ignoring the ecosystem of its devices too much, but the recent news about the Philips cooperation and the N79 Active release shows that it is already changing. So, let’s not cry about the past, but see what was expected for 2008 – which is already happening now:

• Your Music, where you want it; Nokia Conversations
• N79 Active videos; Nokia Conversations

Conclusion

Comparing the two top 10 lists of important news and mistakes, I have to say, the outlook is much better than the mistakes made during 2008. While my view is currently limited by the missed opportunities in my newest phone – the 5800 -, getting something nice to say about Nokia’s future took considerable less time (about half), than finding enough mistakes for the top 10 list. From my side, I’ve spent enough time to recount the past and from now on will concentrate on a better future instead :-)

Nokia, this was your automated wake up call service.

Nokia targets its Services & Software business to have 300 million unique services users by 2012.

Forget nagging Nokia to announce it’s target for 2009 for Ovi. As Nokia is insisting of finishing (???) Ovi first, before pushing it, we will not see a huge jump before summer. My own estimation is about 0,5 – 1 million Ovi (mostly Share) users by the end of 2008, around 30 million by the end of 2009 (mostly the Mail on Ovi and Maps on Ovi users, future N97 owners and converted My Nokia IDs), 100 million registered (!) users by the end of 2010 and 100 million users in each year after.

How big is 300 million?

To understand how far behind Nokia is currently and how ambitous is the goal, let’s look at some other services and social sites:

• Apple’s Mobile Me has an estimated 2-5 million users (didn’t find any data)
• Gmail has 50 – 100 million users (the 2 most common estimates)
• Facebook has 140 million active users
• Yahoo has 250-280 million users (mostly Mail)
• Microsoft Live has about 300 million users (mostly free Hotmail)

To summarize, 300 million is as big as the top web players today. While Nokia has been criticised many times recently for its slow turning of the mothership, the arsenal pointed at the Goliaths of today is shaping up to be breathtaking – and not at all resembling yesterday’s sling.

photo credit: spo0nman

This week’s Carnival of Mobilists is now online at Musings of a mobile marketer (I like the technokitten name better ;-) and includes one of my posts.

To find out which one and to read the best posts about past and future, the mobile industry and devices and software, head over and see the Carnival of Mobilists #155.

If you would like to know more about the Carnival, check out the about page for both readers and contributors.

photo credit: silkegb

Erase and rewind

Yes, it’s a start of a new year, which according to our built-in clock is the time for erase and rewind, summing up the past year and making plans for the new one. My current plans are questionable. I decided to blog about my hobby – Nokia mobile phones – in October. I knew (hence the name of the blog), that it is not an easy ride with Nokia – it is joy and sadness in one. But should it really be?

Thank you, but

I mean, look at the great things Nokia did and still does. Look at the N95, which changed the market totally and set the Convergence into stone. It was the living proof that it can be done, a major engineering victory. All hail the N95, but…

But with Nokia there is always a But. Should I love Nokia because of their great history? Should I love their R&D department or their engineers? But then should I hate their product managers? Or the whatever department, which tests the phones? Who screwed up the N95?

Who did not realize, that the almighty convergence device does not have a battery, which can support all the functionality in the phone? Or the processor to avoid any lag? Or the PIM (Personal Information Management; consisting of the calendar, todo etc.) hasn’t seen an update in 5 years? The 15 million N95 devices sold are nice, but shouldn’t it be sold 40 million times instead?

Wake up call

The 5800 is a loveable device, but it has an outdated PIM, Music Player, standby screen, application catalog, clock and camera software. It has become my primary device, but I’ve lost many things in the process. So many things, that it makes me wonder, if I will be able to continue with my plans through 2009.

Will I be blogging about my love for Nokia devices one year from now? Or will I break after a dozen phones from competitors bring innovation, which Nokia is not even able to copy quickly?

Who and when will wake up Nokia and keep all the fanboys proud?

I believe, it’s one of the most user friendly features regarding music sharing. While UPnP is a common feature on the Nokia smartphones, UPnP enabled devices are not so common around the households of your friends, I guess :-)

By simply launching the FM transmitter via the Music Player, you are able to choose an unused frequency (it should be easier in Europe or Asia, than in the US) and start broadcasting your Nokia station (with RDS nonetheless). I have yet to meet with a phone (N78, N79 or N85) with this function, but it should be common across the portfolio :-)

To see, how it works, please check Symbian World’s video on practical use of the FM transmitter:

FM Transmitter overload:

• Review of the N79 with FM Transmitter; Symbian World
• FM Transmitter hidden in the NAM N78; Symbian-Freak
• Nokia N85 Euro Review – Music; Symbian-Guru
• Nokia N78 FM Transmitter in action; Symbian France (YouTube video, 1:29)
• FM Transmitter; Paul Tan (YouTube)

Here are five things, which make me hate my Nokia 5800:

1. Access point group handling is not even consistent in the built-in firmware
   (Sometimes it asks for the group to be used, sometimes it does not offer groups.)
2. UI rotation is random at best and needs to be tilted in unnatural ways
   (E.g. if I put it down on the table it goes to landscape.)
3. No application support. Download! contains 15 applications only
   (Many apps are being updated, none of them is in the catalog.)
4. Connecting to new WLAN requires canceling the auto-search and refresh manually
5. When writing an SMS, I have to choose between phone number and e-mail address.

Luckily, all of these are software related, so I just need to wait for the firmware update :-)

Here are the five most loveable things about the 5800:

1. The small tingling buzz, when I touch it. I could switch it off as I don’t need the haptic feedback, but I do love the sensation of it reacting to my fingers. :-)
2. The awesome, bright and beautiful screen. I just love to watch (and show) videos on it, which makes everyone drool.
3. The unlock switch. It is in the most natural position, requiring a natural gesture to lock or unlock.
4. The visual transitions of S60V5. I don’t care about battery or performance implications, I need the eye candy ;-) The small red blinking dot showing an application starting up is my personal favorite.
5. The sound. I just love the clarity and power of the 5800’s speakers, as much as my neighbor loves it!

What do you love about the 5800?

Update: Ricky beated me to publishing almost the same list. So I need to publish my “hate” list ahead of time also ;-)

Thanks to this puzzled look on the face, it was not until the end of the year, when we started to see early signs of the new Nokia and it will still take the better part of 2009 to see how the future looks for our favourite Finnish company. So, what were the 10 news in 2008 which have the biggest importance regarding 2009 and beyond?

1. Nokia 5800, the first S60 touch device shipping

The first S60 touch device was leaked, shown, announced, announced and announced and finally shipped to the first countries. Far from revolutionary, the 5800 is a very solid device and one of the sleepers of the year – seemingly surprising even Nokia with it’s initial success.

• Nokia 5800 XpressMusic Preview; All about Symbian
• 20 Reasons Why Nokia 5800 is better than Apple Iphone; Tube5800
• Nokia 5800 XpressMusic First Impressions; Symbian-Guru
• Nokia 5800 outsells iPhone 5-to-1 in first week
• Twice as smart. Half the price

2. The announcement of the N97, the first flagship touch device

The second S60 touch device – and a flagship one – was announced in Barcelona, but there will be a much too long wait until it ships. However, do not underestimate the importance of the N97. While the form factor is nothing new, it is a true pocket computer as well as the first Ovi Device. The realization of the Ovi concept will come to life with the N97 and I also expect a bunch of other services to first show up on it. The “Media Store” of Nokia with movies and everything, Maps 3, Messaging (with IM), a Nokia App Store, Point and Find will be released together with the N97.

• Nokia N97 – hands-on with Nokia’s flagship; Mobile-Review
• Nokia N97 Vs Nokia 5800 XpressMusic; S60 blog
• Nokia N97 round-up: facts, figures, photos, video and first hands-on!; NokNok

3. E71, fast, pretty and makes the US happy

While touch being the new craze for 2 years now, the E71 has shown something even more important. Nokia can actually make a device, which is fast, looks good and pleases the US market also – while running Symbian! It is often part of the 4 devices to choose from in the US (iPhone, BB, G1 being the big three) and mentioned 10 times more than any other device. So, here is hoping, that the E71 team is actually cloned and used for all future devices in Nokia.

• Nokia E71 review; Engadget Mobile
• My new love; Symbian World (w beautiful photos)
• E71 application week; 3 parts by Dotsisx at Symbian-Guru
• How do I love the E71? Let me count the ways; ZOMG its CJ

4. Mail on Ovi, a move into Google area and 100 million user potential

Amidst all the S60 announcements, most sites missed the news in November about Nokia becoming a mail provider for the masses. The scale of the opportunity is indeed enormous. Don’t think “will the 5800 sell one million” – think “will Ovi outgrow Gmail in 1 or 2 years”? While Nokia so far has been making rookie mistakes in establishing its services and using the windows of opportunity, this one means using the 400 million email-enabled devices sold before 2011 and turning them into 60-100 million Ovi users. Can Nokia reach a 15% conversion rate? I believe it can do even better.

• Mail on Ovi for S40
• Mail on Ovi is now available globally; Nokia Users

5. Maps on Ovi, clearing the field in location services and preparing for elimination

Maps on Ovi is coming to life with the third version of Nokia Maps. It is currently in beta, but despite opening with a public relations fiasco it is in fact an important move by Nokia into web-based location services. Google Maps is currently the only real player in this field, but with Nokia easily conquering around 60% of the GPS market (standalone units included!) in the next two years, it can be the major player in this field.

• Maps on Ovi beta; Nokia Betalabs
• Nokia Maps now integrated with Ovi; Aditya Singhvi’s phones

6. Ovi Sync, how true mobile synchronization should look like and the door to Ovi

While the main part of Ovi Sync is the resurrection of My Nokia Backup functionality, it also shows a unique understanding of “being mobile” by Nokia. It is how the world will look like in a year: no cables, everything going over-the-air. Quick and simple with a nice web interface – my belief is that even if Nokians think of Share (Twango) as the starting service of Ovi, it will be Sync (besides Mail), which will reel most of the users in.

• How to save Nokia’s Ovi from dying?
• How to add and Sync your device with Ovi.com; ZOMG its CJ

7. Comes with Music, all your base belong to us

Comes with Music is the all you can eat music bundle of Nokia, slowly being released on a country-by-country basis. It is currently only running in the UK with limited success, but Q1 2009 we will see more markets starting up with new devices. The service is indeed revolutionary and – if Nokia does not screw it up – has the potential to change the online music industry. It is also a bold move to break up Apple’s iPod ecosystem – the sooner the better.

• Nokia CwM: 5 ways it beats iTunes; NokNok
• Blowing away the fog surrounding CwM; Nokia Conversations
• CwM video guide; NokNok
• CwM grabs 10% of iTunes’ market in first week

8. Qt, the promiseland for developers

Nokia has announced the acquisition of Trolltech about a year ago, to bring easy cross-platform development to S60 and many other platforms (mobile, computer and web). While adding one more development tool wouldn’t make it to top 10, attracting developer mindshare and speeding up development of visually attractive applications does – as it addresses one of the biggest shortcomings in Nokia’s past software strategy.  Qt was used to develop Google Earth, Skype and KDE – which shows the potential of the application framework. It is also available for Windows mobile, embedded Linux, Windows, Linux (and all X11-based systems), Mac (Cocoa API) – promising only a couple of hours of porting work across platforms!

• The future of mobile development; All About Symbian
• S60 application storm forecasted for summer 2009; Nokia Conversations
• Qt Everywhere demo; S60 living
• Technology Preview – Qt for S60; Trolltech/Nokia

9. Symbian Foundation and the battle for developer mindshare

As with Qt, buying Symbian and immediately transferring it to a common governing body is mainly driven by keeping the 50% share of Symbian and attracting developers. But just think for one moment about what Nokia has done here! Paying $410 million for the market leading OS, just to open source it is simply unprecedented.

• Google Android vs iPhone vs Symbian Foundation; Mobile Shop
• Symbian Foundation – The big round up; article collection, Nokia Conversations

10. Touching 40%, aka Nokia’s Dream

With Nokia passing Motorola for the first place in 1999, but commanding only 29% of the market in Q1 2004, the announced 40% target market share might have been a long stretch for many. The mobile market has doubled since 2004, yet even with stronger competition from Samsung, LG and Sony Ericsson, Nokia has managed to reach its target. With the rise of RIM, Apple and Google, it’s time for Nokia to announce a new target. I vote for a 100 million Ovi users in 2 years.

• Nokia History & Marketing lessons; Dotsisx at Symbian-Guru
• Nokia’s marketshare in the US; Darla Mack
• Congratulations Nokia!; Communities dominate brands

Do you agree? Feel free to leave your opinion in the comments or to write a Re: The top 10… post if you have better ideas.

Are you interested in The top 10 mistakes Nokia made in 2008? Subscribe to the RSS feed or return next week.

photo credit: swruler9284

I’ve been writing up a concept phone, called Nokia Evolution in the last few weeks, with the following base requirements in mind:

• stable form factor through product iterations (6500 classic size)
• start simple (call, sms, photo/video view, music), full touchscreen
• start with no extras to keep the cost to minimal (only 4GB and wi-fi, no camera, no 3G, no GPS, no custom app install support)
• animated graphics UI and landscape orientation, with senior citizens as focus group (touchscreen for the masses)
• ecosystem: announced with support from accessory manufacturers, initial carriers and a target yearly sales volume
• OS is based on Open Symbian, starts with basic functionality only and grows as more and more parts of Symbian are transferred to the Symbian Foundation, automated sw updates via sideloading
• yearly renewal of hardware, released Q2 2009, sub-100 EUR unlocked price (estimated 60 EUR manufacturing cost)

If you think about the iPhone Nano, it could easily fulfill these requirements except the animated UI and the open source part and still be released in Q1 2009. If it will not be announced, I’m hoping that Nokia makes the Evolution device in 2009 and truly brings touchscreen to the mainstream market.

photo credit: mireia.

My enthusiasm over anything OTA started with Ovi Sync and since then I refuse to go back to cables. Nokia Users were Born Free so it suits us to be able to sync, backup, update anything On The Go, Over The Air. This is also quite a unique feature – while Google’s Android is able to receive automatic OTA updates (but a manual update voids your guarantee on the G1), the iPhone, for example, is still left in stone age with very limited cable-less options.

Checking for FOTA updates can be scheduled on the Nokia N79, yet other models still require manual checking by typing *#0000# on the home screen of the phone. Interestingly, besides the newest N-Series phones, the Nokia 5800 also has this capability. (We will see next week, when it arrives ;-)

Until then, please check the video of an N96 being updated:

OTA orgy:

• The past of software updates; video, Mikko Kuusisto about Nokia Software Update over the air
• The FOTA on new devices; video, Mikko how to use it
• How to Update the Firmware OTA; step-by-step guide by Vaibhav at The Symbian Blog
• Losing your FOTA virginity; video, Mark from The Nokia Blog
• The first FOTA update; N78 received the first in June 2008, Symbian Guru

What is Aeon?

The phone is sporting a full touchscreen divided into two parts, resembling a traditional candybar form, but with the keyboard part automatically changing according to context. Throw in the fuel-cell and the fact (I mean concept), that the "screen" and "keyboard" parts can be separated and used individually and you have a pretty futuristic, modular, wearable mobile phone.

I would like to show more, but evidently, Aeon pages of Nokia were taken down sometime during the last half-year!

Why is it not out yet?

At that time the message was quite clear from all sources. If Nokia can make this concept work, then everybody would bow at the feet of the Master of Mobile Universe (myself included). When the iPhone came out, there were still a lot of voices heard – it’s nice, but when Aeon comes out, it will rule them all. Two years later, Nokia is still trying to beat Apple in its own game, instead of opening new frontiers.

While the full touchscreen part has lost its revolutionary status in the last 2 years, Aeon is still stylish and a familiar form for the hundred-millions of candy-bar owners. As candy-bar form is associated with the low-value, high volume mobiles now, it could be one of the reasons, why Nokia did not introduce the Aeon. (But … Vertu, anyone?)

Regarding fuel-cell technologies, Toshiba is committed to utilize the tech in commercial products by the end of March 2009. Also, another blocker was removed this year, when the US Department of Transportation has lifted the ban on fuel-cell cartridge transportation on airplanes. So, are we getting closer to an Aeon in 2009?

Photos of Nokia Aeon below:

Recommended reading:

• The Return of the candy bar?; NPD analysis
• 2 years later, commenters still want the Aeon; Phones Review’s Aeon news from 2006
• Fuel-cell powered devices coming closer; Good read blog

Patching the portfolio

Nokia in 2008 has been reorganizing. Shuffling the cards, figuring out what it exactly meant by Ovi, scratching its head. Fine. It has also missed the deadline for Nokia 5800, which should have came out in June. It was also quite busy heading towards 40% market share, finding the right – sustainable – amount of models. (They still should drop about 25% of their releases per year to have a right balance.) Yes, the N-series touchscreen will come soon. But it’s nothing new. It might be a real iPhone competitor (the 5800 is not), addressing the main advantage of Apple: usability. But it’s just a patch for the portfolio. Yes, the highly popular N810 will have a follow-up with high-speed 3G and Linux. Just an adjustment. Yes, Nokia might finally release Aeon and have a highly popular design handset. It’s just something, which should have been done in 2007.

Transforming the way we connect

The Guru is betting on services, based on the headline. I agree, this really sounds like services. So, why it shouldn’t be? There are a couple of themes showing up in Nokia’s job ads. "Products people fell in love with", "social address book", "the web made by hand". Each of these are worth a separate post (and they will get what they deserve ;-), yet none of them is big or innovative enough. Apple is doing the first, Yahoo, Facebook the second and there are more startups in the third area than you could count. Yet another Ovi service? Of course, Ovi is not ready. It hasn’t been even started, really, so there is plenty of room for big announcements. Sync to become a social address book with presence and lifestreams, Files to become NAS for mobile phones, Music Store to become a full Media Store – none of these are small steps. Seeing that Nokia kept this announcement a secret, it could be the company buying Yahoo. Yet, it’s not transforming. It might be, but two companies struggling with new Internet services does not add up to one successful company.

The smartphone war is over

It’s time for a new generation of devices. Painful to say, but the iPhone is almost there to fulfill all smartphone promises. It’s the perfection of the convergence between cell phones and computers – Nokia started to push a couple of years ago with N-series. Nokia and Apple will battle it out for top sales, but it’s the end game. Actually, a new device could come early – 5800 should have came in June, the N96 also. Seems like Nokia is not caring about overlapping products anymore, they are just pushing out what’s in their queue. (See my post about top E and N series devices today.) So, clearing the space for something bigger?

Back to the roots

iPhone competitor? Internet services? This is our wishful thinking as consumers. But look at what Nokia needs and just remember, how proud is Nokia of doing things first. If the company wants to reclaim thought leadership in an attention economy and transform the way we connect for real, it has to come up with something unique and innovative. (Why Nokia is so active in communicating its innovations this year?) It has to change the battlefield from smartphones to something else. There is only one recurring thing in Nokia ideas about the future: the wearable, morphing, modular, sensor-connected communicators. And half of that is already possible today with separate bendable screens, NFC-connected base station in your pocket and the Sensor Framework announced some time ago. I think the Nokia 888 comes in 2009.

If you are a Nokia fanboy (like half of me is), your mantra in the last 1-1,5 years was most likely this:

I want to believe in Nokia, again.

I want to believe in usability, engineering supremacy and thought leadership – the things which Nokia was famous for before. I’m ready, beam me up, Nokia!

Update: How could I forget? In a previous post I was complaining about the tasks, which Nokia should do, so they "can focus on implementing new things in 2009, like my 8 MP 3,5″ gesture controlled T-Series phone? ;-)". It’s also something, which would be new, unique and innovative. Let’s see tomorrow.

photo credit: krazydad / jbum

Your mobile will proactively advise you that you are meeting so-and-so at 10 a.m. and that traffic is picking up, so you should leave right now. It will than route you based on real-time traffic flow data to avoid jams.

This is the promise, which Nokia is making on it’s current research regarding traffic data. In a joint effort by Nokia Research, Berkeley University of California and CalTrans (the California Transportation Authority), mobile phones with built-in GPS are used to collect real-time movement data, which then serves as the input for (hopefully :-) sophisticated algorythms to calculate the traffic map of the area.

Once you have the traffic map, you can feed this information back for routing (avoiding traffic jams) and better trip time estimation (how much it really takes to get to point B).

After you have real-time and historical traffic map data, you can then use it for anything location-based, like meetings, todo items (combined with GPS Action) or even meeting friends (the “Meet me” function).

Why does Nokia research real-time traffic?

Besides the technological challenge which makes the researchers tick, there are two real problems today, which need to be answered. One is the customer need to spend less time in traffic jams (and reduce the stress of arriving on time), the second is the cost for navigation companies to provide traffic info.

• Estimations say traffic jams cost $68-78 billion per year in the US only (62 hours per driver per year)
• In Los Angeles, the estimated average wasted time was 93 hours per driver in 2004
• The difference between rush-hour and normal traffic speed is around 5-times
• The most common traffic-avoiding techniques are rerouting or going earlier/later
• Real-time traffic info licence cost 20 EUR per year for Nokia Maps, about 40 EUR for other providers
• Today, traffic information is mainly collected by roadside sensors for a limited number of roads
• However, GPS has also limited coverage (like tunnels, urban canyons)

Frankly speaking, I would be totally happy today, if the trip time would have a better estimation – why is it always using the average based on the speed limit and not my actual speed? :-)

Who else is working on real-time traffic?

According to some research companies, Nokia is considered as the most innovative company in navigation software. Yet, there are several bets in the LBS (location based services) domain right now.

• Tomtom’s High Definition Traffic service is based on agreement with Vodafone to collect and use anonymous cellphone signals for predicting movement speed. (Your mobile supplies data even if it is in your pocket, which is then received by Tomtom customers as live traffic data.)
• Dash had collected real-time traffic data from it’s customers (via Dash Express devices) and was considered one of the most advanced solutions. A combination of cellular network and wi-fi connections meant live updates for all users of the Dash Driver Network. Unfortunately, Dash has just announced that they will stop selling devices and will only focus on licencing their technology.
• Inrix is a data and service supplier for automobile and portable navigation devices, combining GPS, road-sensor, toll gate and cellphone data to provide real-time and historical reports for the US.

So, when will you see it on your phone?

Nokia’s Mobile Millenium research hopes to reach 10,000 pilot users by April 2009, while the project is expected to run until April 2010. If you live and drive in the San Francisco Bay Area, then you can have it today, by volunteering and downloading the pilot software. It’s available for several Nokia S60 devices (like the E71, N95 or N96) and some Blackberry phones and Java-enabled devices. (Not the iPhone, though – it doesn’t support Java.)

For the rest of the US or the world – well, we should wait for it patiently :-)

Recommended reading

• Traffic Works; Nokia Innovations
• Mobile Millenium; the official page of this research project
• Traffic in the United States (PDF link!); ABC/Time magazine/Washington post poll
• The 100 car experiment; February 2008
• RFID study (PDF link!); includes comparison of different monitoring technologies
• Closing roads could speed up travel; Economist

[poll id="3"]

Symbian to-do

• Swear that access groups will be the standard from now on and you update current firmwares also
• Promise that you will integrate Nokia account signup with first start of the device
• Create video guides for each S60 device

Beta to-do

• Publish Nokia viNe finally
• Release the beta of Ovi Suite for Mac
• Decide between Plazes, Friend View, Nokia Chat and viNe and to integrate the rest

Device to-do

• Run the obituary for the Nokia charger. All E and N series should come with micro-USB charging.
• Agree to maximum 2 releases per year for N- and E-series
• Undertake maximum 20 devices per year (two for each series)

Websites to-do

• Correct the description of each device on the web page. The definitions are wrong, mistyped or simply incomplete. This is unacceptable.
• Decide on the integration of Download!, Mosh and Share on Ovi
• Cut the stupid legal text from the Press releases. Link to them.

Ovi to-do

• Release the first TV advertisements for Ovi Sync worldwide, focusing only on one message.
• Announce the target for Ovi/Nokia account user number by the end of 2009.
• Start publishing all past Nokia advertisements 1 advert per day through Share on Ovi

Dear Reader, what do you think? What should be done or decided urgently, which cannot wait until 2009?

photo credit: StudioEgo

Recommended reading about Macs and Nokia phones

• Dotsisx and The Guru: Match made in heaven, Does Nokia care?, Nokia + Mac = Love?
• All About Symbian on S60 and Macs: part 1, part 2, part 3, part 4
• Nokia: Mac software overview page
• Supposed screenshots of the alpha software
• And the interview video with Marko Lindgren, courtesy of Nokia Conversations, below

The original idea is coming from Carlos H. Mendoza, my compliments.

Don’t misunderstand me. Share on Ovi actually won me over (my Flickr Pro account is collecting dust). Can’t wait to have access to Nokia Music (via my Mac). I’m loving Nokia Maps and what’s coming for location services. But … what seems to be an easy path to world domination – is simply not happening.

First step towards world domination

Take Ovi Sync, which I believe is The Key to utilizing the enormous potential at hand. Start simple. Four-hundred million devices per year. 400.000.000. One million per day. Assuming at least 25% is Ovi-enabled – there is a 100-million market for driving Nokia’s internet services to success. While Nokia is obviously pushing Share as the primary entry point to Ovi, Sync seems a much easier target. Here is why:

• your contact list is the most valuable part of your mobile
• it is the first thing you transfer to your new phone
• it is your biggest concern, if your phone is lost, stolen, destroyed or abducted by aliens
• it is universal from the Nokia 1100 to N96, from senior citizens to 12-year old emo kids

The contact list is the perfect target: high value, at constant risk and a simple solution already existing. Only two more steps to world domination: easy accessibility and clear marketing.

Easy accessibility

Nokia account signup should come as a standard issue with all new devices, starting with Nokia 5800. You switch on the device, asks for your login or registers your username and phone number. At 10% conversion rate, here comes 10 million user in 2009.

Then moving on, phone offers the Switch app to bring everything from your old faithful. Does the usual transfer, but instead of closing, it suggests to bring your most precious data to safety heaven – the Ovi Sync. Here comes additional 40 million user in 2009.

No data is being transferred? Not a problem: after my father has typed in his most important 50 contacts from his old 3210, the phone would suggest setting up the Nokia account and safely storing the contacts.

Where else could the Nokia account signup be integrated? What is the best point to offer backup?

Clear marketing

Forget Sync. Welcome Safety. Compare the two messages:

• Organise your life Keep your contacts & calendar up to date, in sync and backed up on Ovi.
• Never lose your contacts Safely store your contacts on Ovi for free.

Syncing your data with your computer or web services is for the 20% geeks – the first message applies to these advanced users. The other 80% just wants a safe copy somewhere, today. Why not talk to them first? My mother wouldn’t feel the urge to set up sync with a web service – but she would quickly arrange for a backup of her 100 contacts. I sync to back up and I’m proud of it. Why do you sync?

And what could be the best message for the Ovi Sync?

Ovi Sync today

The fact is, Ovi Sync is great, already today. It took about 20 seconds to do the initial synchronization: contacts, calendar and notes. Sequential updates take 3 seconds only. I really don’t like cables and since experiencing this wonder, I want everything OTA. You should try it out today, if you haven’t done so yet.

If only Nokia would push it with all its powers. Ovi could go from zero to hero in one year with 50 million users. (Oh, and the relation with Ovi dying? If Nokia won’t drive Ovi to success today, someone else will introduce the first popular mobile-web service and grab all the attention…)

"you may feel a slight sting. That’s pride fucking with you. Fuck pride. Pride only hurts, it never helps" (Pulp Fiction)

This is not a comparison between the Nokia 5800 and iPhone. This table is a demonstration of how Nokia went for the hit in functionality (as always), while disregarding form (where the iPhone currently cannot be beaten). That being said, let’s take a look at the specifications of the Nokia 5800 XPressMusic phone coming out soon.

If we take a look at the feature table (and skip the UI and design elements, by awarding it to Apple), it’s quite visible, where Nokia’s strengths and priorities are. The hardware, especially the screen, GPS, photo optics and video, with a good measure of connectivity (e.g. bluetooth) and personalization (e.g. ringtones) are there, as clear winners. There are a number of options, where the jury is still out (needs actual user experience to decide) or the difference is a matter of taste. Strangely, three of these (input method, web browsing and music playback) are quite significant – and might as well decide whether the 5800 will be the success Nokia needs so much. Last, there is one significant item: e-mail handling (let’s throw the PIM functions in for good measure). While this is not the primary target of the 5800, its missing renewal might be one of the fatal mistakes. Want to see more news about the Nokia 5800? Subscribe to the RSS feed of Renegade Fanboy! Reading material update:

• Womworld is now collecting reviews of Nokia 5800 also. Check out their new category for actual reviews.

Nokia 5800 ad - iPhone spoof

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